Snowshoe Mountain Resort

Summary

SYNOPSIS

... An approaching cold front brings showers and storms this afternoon into the weekend. Active weather continues into next week with daily chances for showers and storms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 355 PM Friday...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed once again this afternoon along the spine of the higher terrain courtesy of diurnal anabatic convergence. Have introduced likely PoPs into the evening across this area, with some locally heavy downpours possible. Given weak low/mid mean layer flow from the southwest, activity should continue to gradually meander northeastward. Given the slow movement, a highly isolated water issue or two cannot be ruled out, but rain rates should generally ease as time goes on given a developing cold pool across the region. Further west, SCT showers are moving into the Mid-Ohio Valley as weak mid/upper level forcing begins to push into the region. Showers will continue to shift eastward throughout the late afternoon into the evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 129 PM Friday...

As a cold front approaches from the west, several H700 shortwaves will cross the area providing forcing to sustain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into Saturday. There could be a reduction in coverage and intensity of precipitation at night, but thunderstorms should fire up once again Saturday afternoon with better instability present.

Convection is anticipated to be rather disorganized and non-severe. However, PWATs values around 1.5 inches under weak deep layered shear may produce localized heavy downpours conducive to minor water issues on Saturday. However, widespread flooding is not anticipated given the fairly dry soil conditions.

Warm and humid air in place will keep lows tonight generally in the mid to lower 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. For Saturday, abundant clouds and cooling showers will keep highs in the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 1128 AM Friday...

More of the same type of weather is expected Sunday with a stalled front nearby bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and weak shear of only 15-25 kts should mitigate the risk of severe weather. Localized flooding remains possible, especially in areas that previously saw heavier downpours over the previous few days. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s across the lowlands and the 70s in the mountains. The air will feel slightly humid across the lowlands with dew point temperatures ranging from 60-65 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1129 AM Friday...

The unsettled pattern will continue into the new work week with chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday. Some models are showing the potential for severe weather Wednesday with 35+ kts of 0-6 km bulk shear and 1,000-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in spots. Confidence is low at this time, but this will be something to monitor over the coming days. Our region will be positioned in the warm sector with dew points 65-70 degrees and PWATs around 1.5 inches, so localized flooding might also be a concern Wednesday. In addition, we will also have to watch for the potential of gusty non-thunderstorm winds with low pressure strengthening over the Great Lakes.

Our region will remain in the warm sector Thursday, and it still looks very warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms. Next Friday remains uncertain, but some models are showing a warm front sinking south of the region with slightly cooler weather returning.