Snowshoe Mountain Resort

Snowshoe, WV

INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

Currently

Temperature 37°F
Feels Like 33.39°F
Humidity 46%
Pressure 1013mb
Wind 8.99mph from the W
Broken clouds 37°F Broken clouds
This Afternoon Sunny
High: 38°F Low: 29°F
Friday Chance Snow Showers
High: 44°F Low: 39°F
Saturday Rain Showers Likely
High: 51°F Low: 44°F
Sunday Chance Rain Showers
High: 54°F Low: 46°F
Monday Showers And Thunderstorms
High: 58°F Low: 49°F
Summary

SYNOPSIS

... High pressure prevails today. Mid level disturbance brings rain across the north, switching to upslope snow across the northeast mountains tonight into Friday morning. Dry but windy Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 241 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

* Wind advisory in effect for NW Randolph and SE Pocahontas tonight through Friday evening.

* Enhance Fire danger possible once again Friday afternoon and evening.

Axis of deep upper-level trough, extending from the Great Lakes south into the southeastern US, shifts east off the east coast this evening. Meanwhile, an embedded shortwave will cross the northern sections of the area tonight. This shortwave will bring enhanced lake moisture in the form of light rain or sprinkles across the northern lowlands, transitioning into light snow across the northern and central WV mountains tonight into Friday morning. Up to one inch of snow can be expected across the higher elevations.

Models show H850 WNW winds increasing 45 to 50 knots. Expecting a portion of these winds to reflect to the ground under neutral temperature advection. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been redacted for SE Randolph and NW Pocahontas overnight tonight through 8 PM Friday evening.

Near normal temperatures expected tonight, generally in the upper 30s across the lowlands, ranging into the lower 30s higher elevations of our northeast mountains.Slightly higher than normal highs expected for Friday, generally in the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 40s higher elevations.

With increasing gusty winds on Friday, RH values should mix down into the mid to upper 30s for the most part, except even higher depending on precipitation expected tonight. However, under breezy conditions, fuels can quickly dry up posing a threat of spreading fires. A special weather statement may be needed for enhance fire danger on Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 217 PM Thursday...

Key Point:

* Swath of moderate rain along a stalling frontal boundary may yield isolated high water issues by Sunday

At the outset of the short term period surface high pressure will reside over the Deep South/Eastern Gulf of Mexico with a relatively weak area of low pressure emerging from the Northern Rockies. A warm front associated with the latter feature will slowly drift north overnight Friday, exiting the forecast area to the north during the day on Saturday. Some light precipitation will be possible along and ahead of this feature late Friday night into Saturday. Forecast profiles are a little on the iffy side for weak elevated convection in the warm sector during the day Saturday with some question as to reaching saturation at the base of the elevated mixed layer and allowing for conditional instability release. Given the spread in solutions will defer to central guidance chance/likely PoPs, although these could decrease some over the next couple days as solutions converge. The weak surface low then washes out Saturday night leaving the remnants of its cold frontal boundary as a stationary front draped west to east across the region with some additional chances for light rain, but more importantly setting up a baroclinic battle zone to be worked across by a pair of systems Monday and Tuesday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 217 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

* Stalled frontal boundary brings increasing high water concerns Monday into Tuesday

* Strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon

* Light mountain snow possible Wednesday night into Thursday

As mentioned in the short term discussion, a stalled frontal boundary will bisect the region from west to east at the outset of the long term period. Troughing diving down the Pacific Coast, making a left turn at Albuquerque with lee cyclogenesis in the lee of the Southern/Central Rockies. Deep southwesterly flow in advance of this feature will open the taps of Gulf Moisture with a stream of 1.25 to 1.5 inch precipitable water values stretching from South Texas to the Middle Ohio Valley by Monday morning. Broad ascent aloft from both the right rear and left front quadrants of the northern/southern stream will work over this plume of enhanced moisture much of the day Monday yielding between one half and one inch of rain across much of the area. This initial rainfall could cause some of the more sensitive waterways to rise above bankfull, but more importantly will precondition soils to be more sensitive to subsequent precipitation Tuesday.

Model solutions still display a decent spread regarding eventual evolution of the aforementioned lee cyclogenesis Tuesday into Tuesday night but clustering solutions would suggest a warm front lifting toward during the day coupled with a shared energy area between the northern and southern stream providing forcing for ascent along the front and in the open warm sector during the day. Mid-level lapse rates in the warm sector aren't currently progged to be overly impressive, generally 6.5C/km or so, but the aforementioned abundance of moisture should still yield a decent amount of conditional instability in the presence of a reasonably strong kinematics. Contingent on timing, this could yield some chance for all severe modes Tuesday afternoon. As previously alluded to, antecedent wet conditions could also yield some high water issues with any swaths of heavier rainfall (likely along the warm front). Cold frontal passage is then expected Tuesday night ushering higher column moisture values out to the east through Wednesday morning.

Additional chances for precipitation arrive Wednesday afternoon as northern stream energy crosses the Upper Great Lakes. Across the lower elevations could see rain transitioning to some light non- accumulating snow Wednesday night. In the mountains, some light snow accumulations would be possible Wednesday night, mainly on grassy surfaces given antecedent warm ground conditions.

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